 The Wild Wild World of Wealth |  |
steve-kovach
Stephen is the CEO of InvestAlytics, LLC, a firm providing investment-decision making tools and technology to investors and investment professionals seeking current income, growth, and trading opportunities. Previously, he worked as a Wall Street consultant and advisor for 15 years at A.G. Edwards, Merrill Lynch, and Charles Schwab. Stephen earned a bachelor's degree in Government from Harvard University, a master's degree in Government and International Political Economy from Harvard, and an advanced degree from the University of Oxford, England. He is a member of the CFA Institute, and oversees the investment management committee at the Harvard Club of Boston.I admire Jim Cramer – I think he’s a very talented macroeconomist. However, I think Jim’s been drinking too much Kool-Aide. Either that or he’s stressed out from all of the recent market volatility. Last week, he predicted that by 2011 there would be a housing shortage.
That’s right, a shortage.
However, digging just a little deeper, it is quite remarkable that since 1793, the U.S. has had 44 Presidents (serving a total of 55 terms). The U.S. has also had 44 recessions. Is this coincidence, or, is there a correlation? Adding to this annoying little fact is that that each U.S President has promised to improve the economy since the very first recession of 1797, also known as the Panic of 1797. Moreover, each President got your vote (or those of your ancestors) by campaigning on the promise that their administration, and their economic and political policies, would ensure that “Americans will never have to endure another recession if you just vote for me!”
100% Empty Promises Equal 33% Hardships
For example, between 1929 and 2009, the United States succumbed to three major financial crises, and at least fifteen different recessions lasting between eight and forty three months. Put differently, over the past eighty years, the U.S. economy has been in a state of recession for fourteen of those years, or 17.5% of the time.
Given that the average life span in the U.S. is approximately eighty years, this also means that the average U.S. citizen lives approximately one-fifth of his or her life under the economic hardships typically associated with a recession, such as high unemployment, inflation, and uncertainty about the safety of the money and investments that they entrust to financial institutions, many of which fail during severe financial crises.
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